Thursday, January 22, 2009

Mysterious Gold

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Basically, there is this group of people who went into research on gold deposits all over the world. They ask lots of questions about gold to authorities but are constantly rejected all the time with fuzzy answers.

So the story of the mysterious gold goes like this.

1. Central banks are holding lots of gold.

2. You don't earn money holding gold. So you loan them out.

3. You loan at 1% interest to banks called bullion banks.

4. They borrow these gold and sell them to get cash and buy bonds that gives them 5% interest rates against their 1% loan payable (accounting!!)

5. Yup, these gold are what we wear on the street.

6. But they have to manage their risk properly against gold price so they have to hedge by buying some gold futures.

7. Well, step no.6 is an ideal scenario. Humans being humans, like to try funny stuffs. We see them all the time.

8. Basically, there are many more reasons. But I only find one that is particularly interesting. The authorities are not very transparent about gold lending activities. They don't reveal the figures.

9. From this, there is a possible double counting error. Banks will count that they are still owning the gold. The market people will count the amount of gold they have when in actual fact, these gold are the mysterious gold that are supposed to stay in the vaults. Get what I mean?

10. However, so what if this is true? It could be my next life time because the truth is out. This is very important. It is exactly this situation that make me think for quite some time and I think I can see the picture now. My inspiration comes from Bank of England. Sterling pound is dead. But does that mean that US dollar will be good? If not, then what will be good?

I think the world currencies will be in a mess. No one will like any currency in my honest opinion. Everyone will look back at gold and this is when the shortage will be realised by the whole world because demand is going to drive the truth out and it will be an upward spiral.

Hope this doesn't sound like any self fulfilling prophecies. I just feel that such stuffs make sense to me.

1 comment:

QUALITY STOCKS UNDER FOUR DOLLARS said...

Silver looks like its a better value than gold silver has still a way to go before its even close to its old high.

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