Thursday, February 19, 2009

Why I'm Buying Gold at $1000

To sum up everything into one line, "The Time is here."

This will be the first time I'm buying a future contract. I am going to all-in gold with all the profits I made through shorting the HSI last july. Readers of my blog will know that I do not believe in diversification. It is crap in my opinion. As I always emphasize, put all your eggs into one basket and watch your basket.

De-coupling from Oil, Dollar....

Strangely enough, gold has somewhat decoupled from everything. Other than the fact that when the market is down, gold price rises, it simply ignores the movement in oil and US dollar. I feel that this is a sign - a sign of gold bull market. It is a sign of all bull markets. Ignore everything and sky rocket. It will of cos end in a bubble like manner but before it ends, there is so much money to be made.

But... Is it a bubble forming?


Some may argue that this is a bubble forming. As always, I face lots of funny opposition when I give some crazy thoughts about the market. But it is only at 7-8mth high.

Lets reflect on some bubbles we see before.

1. China Market - more than 100% for two yrs. PE at 90. Bubble? Yes

2. Dot Com - similar to china market

3. Housing bubble - subprime

4. Possible bond bubble - lowest yields last seen 40 yrs back.

You make the call. =)

Gold At $1000

Magic number 1000. We have seen that happening for oil before. Gold has to close above $1000. The close on friday was not at $1000. But believe me, it will be there soon. Real soon. It may even be next week for all we know.

Conclusion: I have talked about the reasons about gold before. I believe that you should be opened to many assets as well. I'm buying gold at $1000, are you?

Thursday, February 5, 2009

Polar Bear

I feel that this is not a bear market.

This is a polar bear market!!!

Polar bears are carnivorous unlike a normal bears which are omnivorous. Polar bears are also the largest land predators. I find this pretty funny. What I'm trying to do here is to emphasize that this is not a normal bear market. It is a polar bear market where your environment is going to be like winter, where the polar bear will be hunting for you. Apparently, all the seals are gone now. LOL to put it in financial terms, it will be one of the worst bear market that really destroys bulk of the wealth in the world.

Again, I see no value in stocks. The economy is horrible. There is a reason why the top 5 hedge fund managers shorted the whole fiasco that we are facing. They understand the economy and there is a reason why Warren Buffett is buying into Swiss francs. Come on, I have emphasized this over and over again. Buffett years will take a very long time to come.

But jokes aside, I was looking at some stuffs and remembering how the market was going. I feel that it is very bad. Descending triangle at a very deadly level of 8000 is not a very good omen in my opinion. All the rallies have been killed lately and we should all know why.

The lost decade for the world. Sounds apt for current situation? Welcome to the new polar bear market.

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