Mid Week Pit Stop #26

Mistakes

Let's take a look at some of the mistakes I have made so far. Well, ignore some of the achievements of course.

1. Gold

Remember that I emphasize on deflation all along. The mailman actually thinks the same way as me but he sees that holding cash is a much safer bet than buying gold. In a way, I actually think that people will see gold as money and safe haven during times of "potential" deflation. Of course, I am wrong. Every commodities go down together. But fortunately, I never buy any gold. =)

I will probably see gold going down to as low as $700.

2. Oil

Well, same thing for oil. I didn't expect oil to plunge down so much after all it has an inelastic demand in some sense isn't it? Now, we all know that during times of deflation, everything falls. Cash is king and I should have listened to mailman. He is actually happily sitting on US dollars after converting all his Singapore dollars. Amazing econ man.

I will probably see oil going down to as low as $50.

3. Trading

I have always asked myself if I should have gone for more volatile warrants or done some intraday trades. There have been days where its like Dow was up 5%, and hsi opened just slightly above flat and I could have pulled out of the warrants and bought at the end of the day. There are also days where it is quite obvious that a rally will come. Of course, "obivous" is a very subjective word. There are also days where I will lose out badly because hsi just totally goes against the trend of Dow. One up, one down. If I have gone for more volatile warrants, those that expires less than a month. I would have made 1000% seriously.

On hindsight, it is easy to say such things isn't it?

ONE GOOD POINT...

Alright, there should be something worth learning to attribute to some of my gains. I believe it's the emotional control. I really like the way I see the market those days. I was relax. Too relax to some extent, that Mr. X reminded me to be careful at times.

But I told him, "It is different this time round."


"the only way you get a real education in the market
is to invest cash, track your trade, and study your mistakes…"

Jesse Livermore

Very true indeed =)