Here We Go Again

Actually, I don't really like my army days but "here we go again" sounds catchy and it is very applicable to what we are going to see and what we ought to do.

Well, it's the same story. Short anything you see, in particular financials. Short the dollar. I have covered my Lehman on friday. Not much of a difference between $3 and $1. Learning from what happened to Bear Sterns, Freddie and Fannie, get out when you can. But Tuesday is Fed's rate day. We should see Fed doing nothing with the interest rate or even a small cut of 25 basis point.

PAUPER-DOllAR


Pretty much expected, dollar is beginning to revert back to its bearish mood. This is a daily chart. You can actually see a shooting start at index level of 80.5 (I know I mention 80 but give me some allowance please). Again, if you go back to the fundamentals of dollar, why would anyone want the dollar. We are probably going to see some sharp correction in dollar soon. I have a short term target at index level of 75. Do me a favour, throw away your dollar.

GLITTERING GOLD

1.If you still remember, I mention about shorting gold all the way to $700 when it failed to hold at $850. Honestly speaking, I lost faith in that view when gold shot back to $800. Nonetheless, even though there is a possibility that gold might still fall despite of dollar fall. Possible but unlikely.

2. No.1 is just something that I wish to remind you of.

3. Regardless of anything, my super long term view in gold remains the same. If you actually look back all the way to the 1980 where we are crazy inflation and an oil spike, gold went into a crazy bull market - almost vertical. Of course, I advocate a great deflationary period in front of us, I still like gold and believe that it will behave the same way during the great inflation of the 80s.

My Position

1. Some gold if my money allows me to actually

2. Lots of HSI put warrants (super long term ones, I can't stand the time decay thing). I might pull out when HSI reaches 18000 actually. Really have to see how the general environment goes. It is very difficult for me to give a fix target.

3. Short and Hold basically. Anything in sight. Index, financials (like AIG, Merril Lynch), some china stocks (well for those from singapore, I reckon Cosco going all the way down to $1)

Last But Not Least...

HERE WE GO AGAIN, SAME OLD SHIT AGAIN...

Latest Update

In my opinion, Dow losing 500 points on monday is not panic selling. So please don't cover your shorts or go in and buy some things thinking that it's "cheap". We still have more to go!!! Here we go again... ...

Remember I believe Dow can go below 10000. So, HSI, STI and Shanghai targets must all be adjusted as well.

“The market today is dominated by much younger people who have not experienced a bear market.”

George Soros