Also if you want to know the whole story of what has happened recently. I can't explain that well so it's best that I try to find something that explain it properly. Read this.
Desperate Times Desperate Measures
Well, honestly speaking, I still don't see any panic selling for the week. Those are really true selling in my opinion. Of course, many people want to blame "shorters" again, maybe this world has something wrong with short people. Why not blame "buyers" who pushes the price up so far in the first place. Seriously speaking, this isn't right.
But anyone who knows the truth, knows that everything is just a facade.
This week is amazing indeed.
1. We are very close to flat for the week.
2. We have a short selling ban. I mean... if that's what it takes to stop the selling and drag the problem. So be it. I probably earn less money. That's all.
3. Gold was good. Up close to 13%.
4. I sold half of my put positions, when China was flat on wednesday afternoon. HSI was still down some 500 points I think (off lows of 1200 points).
I Am Not So Smart (my views)
1. Well, if you buy the story that the worst is over, its safe to buy stocks now, blah blah blah, think about it. A rally created by banning short sellers, how creative can the officials get? If the prices are falling so badly, why not close down wall street for a few days, a week or even more. Why not let banks take a break and go for some holiday? This is insane isn't it. Not because the rally eats into some of my profits but it is not beneficial at all in the long run. This is not even a panic selling.
2. I have this funny feeling.
If you actually read back some of my previous post, this chart has become a classic. When I look back at what has happened this week and this chart, I have this funny idea. Honestly speaking, I really don't wish to hold my shorts for so long but I feel that I have to re-think about that situation. The bankruptcy is coming too fast for me to understand the whole situation. Luckily, they ban short selling for 10 days so in a way we will not see any selling for at least 10 days. It has given me some time to think through some stuffs. Maybe, we will really remember 2008 as the Bank crisis year.
3. Actually point no.2 never really mentions about the chart. I think the big one is upon us. I find it funny that nothing was mentioned about citigroup and jp morgan. Also, I just realise that AIG derivatives holding is just 60billion. That's 0.1% of the total amount of OTC derivatives held in the world. Let's hope the rest of the 99.9% is safe. I'm sure.
4. Did I mention much about the chart? Alright, I think the bottom is way much lower than I have previously thought. Since bankruptcies have already taken place, I believe there is more to go and I really believe that JP morgan is the last bomb. The bank that holds the most amount of OTC derivatives. If I am not wrong, they hold 90 trillion notional value of OTC.
DO NOTE THAT THE NUMBERS ARE IN TRILLIONS (notional value)
5. Buy Gold. Please, gold is cheap now. I really can't emphasize this anymore, if you want to keep some money and earn some money, please go to the nearest gold shop, buy some gold bars and keep at home. Alright, you can buy some ETFs also or futures on gold.
6. I'm probably going to find some ways to hold some shorts for 1 year or so.
7. I'm not so smart, so do read thru properly.
"The truth isn't what you want to see"
Toh Chin Sheng =)
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