The Big Picture II

It is about time to consolidate some thoughts and look at what's happening. I will probably enter the market again pretty soon. This time round, I shall not throw in any economic jargons. It is just plain straightforward common sense investing.

Glittering Gold Again


Finally it is back. Gold in times of possible crazy deflationary period. I don't know. Remember one of the older post where I actually say Gold might fall to 700. I can't explain or even convince myself why gold will fall to 700 when interest rates keep falling and dollar keeps falling. It is super illogical to me. In the end, dollar simply skies through the roof and blows my mind away. I certainly did not consider such a scenario because it didn't make sense to me. But again, in the stock market, anything happens.

I was reading somewhere about bond yields can't stay at this low level forever. However, this makes sense to me. Who in the right mind will want to hold US treasuries? So demand for treasuries have to go. In a way, you can short some bonds but it is so out of my field. I'm actually reading about Charles D., the legendary bond trader. Hopefully I can learn a thing or two about the bond market.

So putting bonds aside, I just think that the only avenue that people will want to park their money in is gold. Holding cash just doesn't make sense. I really don't know if the dollar will just collapse one day. If you seriously like dollar, I can't stop you. So unless you can propose to me another currency, I believe that gold is one of the best asset class in the future and even now.

Gold simply has this mysterious lure. I am lured by it. I know Indians love them. I just can't see how the demand for gold will go down. It will stay flat at most.

Stocks

I like China Stocks. Alright maybe I shall change this blog to a Jim Rogers fan blog. LOL

On a whole, I don't really like stocks for the long run as mentioned before. But certainly there is more to the upside and I support buying any index. I like HSI.

I am keen on buying DJI 9500 DBeCW090323.

Again I have always emphasized on this before. When things go up, everything goes up together. It is just that which one goes up more. I really can't pin point any stocks to you. I just feel that buying the index makes a lot of sense. To some extent, I can highlight some stocks like consumer staples, Walmart, and this is all I know. I still don't like any banks. AIG was back on spotlight with some stupid speculation losses.

Buy some index stocks or bluechips. But again I don't like any stocks for the long run. I think stocks will go down badly and stay sideways.

Commodities

I'm a fan of Jim Rogers. What can I say? Actually gold is also a commodity but I want to highlight it separately.

You can buy them now or wait a bit first. Most of us don't have the staying power like Jim Rogers. The margin will probably eat us all up easily. Again, buy some agriculture.

Conclusion - The Big Picture

I am a bear. I don't like any stocks. Bailouts don't really solve the problem isn't it. What will happen down the road in a few more years? When the banks are still stuck? Who is going to bail the Fed out? It is pretty funny isn't it? I really don't know how people can be slightly optimistic about the future. We are really going to see crazy valuations down the road. Dow at 5000? STI 1000? HSI below 10000? Do look out for weekend post. I will try to consolidate everything that has happened so far in an interesting manner.

The future of money is commodities and in particular, argiculture. You ought to own some.