Team Jin VS Team Kilduff

Commentary of the game (the week)

Welcome back everybody to the 2nd Half of the prestigious "Oil Championship Finals" between Team Jin and Team Kilduff. I am Jin Sidekick, your commentator for the game. As of half time, Team Kilduff is leading 1-0 with its brilliant "oil topping, pronounced top" strategy that he has charted out.

The teams are now ready to kick off the 2nd Half and somehow Team Jin looks restless. I believe they need some changes but the manager, "Jin Plunger", has NO SUBS on his bench to call upon. Looks like we are going to have a boring 2nd Half.

Team Kilduff is happy to keep possession in their half, with no intention to attack anymore. Players from Team Jin are getting frustrated. Time is running out and we are down to the last 10 min of stoppage time.

Skipper cum lone striker "Jin King" is sick of how the game is being played right now. He lunges a late sliding tackle at the star striker "J. Kilduff" from behind.

Beep. Yellow Card! I think the referee is being lenient there. However "J. Kilduff" is pretty unhappy. He wants a red card to be shown. The referee waves him off and signals for the match to resume.

"J. Kilduff" is red hot now. He demands the ball and starts dribbling from the midfield line. With dazzling footwork, he has dribbled past "Monday" , the defensive midfielder of Team Jin, easily. Shakes off "Tuesday", a slow and useless central defender, with a simple side step. With his change of pace, he manages to get past "Wednesday" and is now facing the goalkeeper, "Thursday" in a 1 on 1 situation.

Manager "John K" has his fist up in the air. He knows that the game will be over if "J.Kilduff" scores now and his "Oil Topping" strategy will make him famous.

The goalkeeper has rushed out and spread himself wide. "J. Kilduff" is full of composure and is very familiar with this situation. He brings the ball to his right and unleashes a banana kick that swerves past "Thursday" easily. The ball looks destined for the back of the net.

IT HITS THE TOP BAR AND BOUNCES JUST OUTSIDE OF THE LINE! The linesman waves a no goal sign to the referee. Team Kilduff is stunned. "Thursday" scrambles back to get the ball. A lifeline is thrown to Team Jin and we have 5 more minutes of stoppage time to go.

"Thursday" kicks the ball into Zone Z. What he is doing?

Oh, Team Jin is making a substituition. Looks who's here? Legendary midfielder "ECB" is here. He was supposedly held back by flight delay. The crowd roars and ECB receives a standing ovation upon entering the field. ECB passes a note to Skipper Jin King.

Camera zooms in and we can see something written on it. "We may get a Rate Raise next month". Jin King hints his teammates about the team instruction with some hand signals. Team Jin looks fired up. Momentum has shifted to them. What a 5min of ball game we are going to have.

Throw in is taken and immediately "ECB" snatches the ball away. He delivers a high floating 50 yard cross to Jin King who is now clear of the defense line. Team Kilduff points to the linesman for offside but the FLAG STAYS DOWN!

IT'S A GOAL!!! Jin King makes no mistake and the game is tied.

We are into injury time now and the fourth official shows 3 min of injury time. Team Jin knows that they have to end this game now and not go into injury time for Team Kilduff to regroup. Team Jin are piling up the pressure and earn a corner in the 93min. This looks like the last possession of normal time. But we have an argument right now between "Israel" and "Iran" to see who takes the corner. The spectators (speculators) like it very much. "Morgan Stanley", the playmaker, pushes them aside and takes the corner. It is a well taken corner and the ball flies towards Jin King who looms large at the six yard box.

IT'S IN!!! TEAM JIN HAS DONE IT. Team Kilduff is appealing for a handball but the referee ignores them. Looking at the replay, Jin King uses his hand but the referee can't see it. It's the Hand Of God. Team Jin has won the "Oil Cup".

Back To Reality

I was trying to be funny this week but I think I have scored a resounding victory with my firm stand on oil. I added an update on mid week post when I realised that ECB was announcing their rate policy later in the day on thursday. I was expecting ECB to raise rates because of inflation but they didn't. However, they hinted that they might do so next month. That's it. A hint is enough and I know dollar will plunge and oil will shoot.

My stand is not completely supported unless oil breaks previous high of $135. Oil was just below $130 on thursday and come friday, Morgan Stanley and tension between Iran and Israel complete the full turnaround of oil. We are facing an oil price of $138 right now.

Btw, here's a Kilduff's article which he published on Wednesday. I wonder what else will he be saying next week. I will not criticize him if he apologises like T. Boone Pickens who actually says that oil will go down to $80 something and he is shorting oil. He changes his stand later and is bullish on oil right now.

SPC was down to $6.5 on friday. Shorting on monday opening at $6.9 will yield you about 7%. With oil this high, I wonder if SPC will go up or down. The earnings was down previously because of too high oil prices.

Looking Ahead

Well, if you refer to past posts, I have been saying that we are in this sort of channel between 12k and 13k. I don't wish to be exact so I just take the whole number. This time round we are going to re-test the lower support level of 12k. So you can tell that we still have some more downside to go.

So if you are looking to trade the market, I suggest shorting Lehman.

Reasons being:

1. Weakest in the field. Well the experts say so, it is almost impossible for me to find out so I just take it as it is.

2. Unfixed earnings announcement date. Apparently, lehman may pre-announce their earnings. I like this kind of surprise factor. Just send some panic to the crowd.

3. It closes below $35. Basically I feel that lehman has a strong support of $35 before but it broke it last week. So I think you should short lehman with a stop loss at $35. Short until Dow hits the support of 11.8k to 12k. Honestly I think Lehman is heading to test its previous low of about $25. But it is a heavily shorted stock so you must have your stop loss.

4. Overall downtrend for the market.

I don't like anything from Singapore. Not even SPC. Watch out for Oil, I got this feeling that maybe oil will zoom past $140 easily and we have a market bottom. Dollar will still continue its way down. I foresee a big plunge on monday. =D

Extreme dislocations in markets inevitably occur - Gary Brinson