I feel that intuition is an interesting thing. Is it gut feel or a summation of experiences? I mean a lot of people place their trust on fundamentals or technical analysis, are they really that useful in the end? Sometimes I do question myself and wonder if the environment that I'm talking about is purely based on my own intuition or is it really sound analysis using lots of tools?
Intuition can only be justified by events that unfold afterwards.
George soros uses backache as an intuition.
"When I’m short and the market acts a certain way, I get very nervous. I get a backache and then I cover my short and suddenly the backache goes away. I feel better. There’s where the instinct comes in"
When I read again on Jesse Livermore, he talks about the mystery of his intuition at work with Union Pacific. He was having a holiday, a break from the market when it was still very bullish and active. He did call up a few times to check on the board and one fine day, he felt a strong urge to short sell Union Pacific. In the end, an earthquake came and he amassed quite a sum of money with all his shorts. So how do you go about explaining this? Intuition plus luck? Or...
Could the fact that he was holidaying tell a lot about how he feels about the bull market? Was it exhausting that's why he didn't want any action in it? Surely his intuition can't predict earthquake.
I would relate his intuition to predicting an unforeseen circumstance. He calls intuition a creative mind at work. This creative mind can be seen as a summation of all the experiences in the unconscious.
So in a way, when I look at my recent posts and what I mention about the general environment or the market sentiment, I begin to wonder if it was really based on true sound analysis or my experience, intuition as work. Honestly speaking, I emphasize on grasping the feel of the market without really stating how. It becomes quite fuzzy to some extent and sometimes I do listen to the fuzzy side of me.
What I'm trying to emphasize is that sometimes the unconscious speaks. To soros, it is his backache. To Jesse, it's his sudden urge. Even Warren Buffett has his intuition working at time when he amazingly pulls out before a sharp market downturn. When you actually come in contact with the market enough, you build up on your experiences and these experiences tell a different story about the market which can be utilized to one's trading decisions
As rational as I wish to become, sometimes I just can't help but go with my intuition.
"When I’m short and the market acts a certain way, I get very nervous. I get a backache and then I cover my short and suddenly the backache goes away. I feel better. There’s where the instinct comes in"
When I read again on Jesse Livermore, he talks about the mystery of his intuition at work with Union Pacific. He was having a holiday, a break from the market when it was still very bullish and active. He did call up a few times to check on the board and one fine day, he felt a strong urge to short sell Union Pacific. In the end, an earthquake came and he amassed quite a sum of money with all his shorts. So how do you go about explaining this? Intuition plus luck? Or...
Could the fact that he was holidaying tell a lot about how he feels about the bull market? Was it exhausting that's why he didn't want any action in it? Surely his intuition can't predict earthquake.
I would relate his intuition to predicting an unforeseen circumstance. He calls intuition a creative mind at work. This creative mind can be seen as a summation of all the experiences in the unconscious.
So in a way, when I look at my recent posts and what I mention about the general environment or the market sentiment, I begin to wonder if it was really based on true sound analysis or my experience, intuition as work. Honestly speaking, I emphasize on grasping the feel of the market without really stating how. It becomes quite fuzzy to some extent and sometimes I do listen to the fuzzy side of me.
What I'm trying to emphasize is that sometimes the unconscious speaks. To soros, it is his backache. To Jesse, it's his sudden urge. Even Warren Buffett has his intuition working at time when he amazingly pulls out before a sharp market downturn. When you actually come in contact with the market enough, you build up on your experiences and these experiences tell a different story about the market which can be utilized to one's trading decisions
As rational as I wish to become, sometimes I just can't help but go with my intuition.
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